Social Security is slated for an above-average cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027, according to some estimates, which would be good news for seniors struggling with rising inflation. But “above-average” doesn’t tell you a lot. Over the past 51 years, the COLA has averaged 3.73%, and people receiving benefits are eager to know how much over that average the next COLA might be.
We won’t know the number until the Social Security Administration officially announces it, which it’s expected to do in mid-October. But here’s what we can infer about how this COLA will compare with the past 50 years, based on the latest COLA estimates.
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The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, recently raised its 2027 Social Security COLA prediction from 2.8% to 3.9% thanks to rising inflation. The COLA is based on prices, so higher prices lead to a higher COLA. This adjustment would add roughly $81 to the April 2026 average monthly Social Security benefit.
If the 2027 COLA actually comes in at 3.9%, it would rank 17th over the past 51 years, making it above the average of 3.73%, even if it’s also well short of the 14.2% record. But it still may not go as far as some seniors hoped.
High COLAs occur following times of high inflation, like we’re seeing now, and since prices tend to stay elevated, the extra money goes toward covering additional living costs instead of raising a recipient’s standard of living.
It’s possible the actual COLA could come in higher or lower than recent estimates, but only time will tell. When the Social Security Administration announces the official COLA in mid-October, you’ll be able to see what your checks will be next year and determine how much of your expenses you’ll need to cover with other sources of income.
