Analysts have digested the most recent inflation and jobs data.
Retirees received a bump in their monthly Social Security payments in January, thanks to the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). The 2.8% increase added about $55 to the average benefit. Many seniors, however, may already be looking forward to how much more they could receive next year.
While it’s still early, analysts at The Senior Citizens League and Congressional Budget Office (CBO), along with independent analyst Mary Johnson, have already updated their 2027 COLA models to include the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Their expectations for next year’s COLA might be surprising.
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Here’s how much benefits could climb in 2027
The annual COLA is based on a standard measure of inflation known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. It tracks a basket of goods and services weighted for the purchasing habits of most of the working-age population living near major cities. To determine the COLA, the Social Security Administration takes the average year-over-year increase in the CPI-W during the third quarter of the calendar year, and that becomes the COLA for the following year.
The CPI-W can differ slightly from the more commonly used CPI-U, which weighs the basket of goods and services for all urban consumers. Last month, the CPI-U climbed 2.4% year over year, while the CPI-W climbed just 2.2% due to differences in how the BLS weighs various items. The CPI-U increase was less than expected due to lower prices for food and energy.
Despite the lower-than-expected inflation report, The Senior Citizens League’s model actually increased its COLA forecast. It now expects retirees to receive a 2.8% bump in 2027, the same as this year’s COLA.
The CBO also expects a substantial 2027 COLA, projecting a 3.1% increase next year. Mary Johnson’s analysis deviates, however, projecting a COLA of just 1.2%.
Despite Johnson’s outlook for cooler inflation, there are a few reasons The Senior Citizen’s League and CBO projections make more sense. One line item that stood out in the most recent CPI report beyond volatile food and energy pricing was the cost of used cars and trucks. The BLS says prices declined 3% in January 2026, compared to December 2025, but that trend could easily reverse course.
In addition, missing data from the October government shutdown clouds the accuracy of other items, like housing prices, which appear to have climbed more slowly in January. Lastly, we may have yet to feel the full impact of tariffs on pricing, as businesses have tried to delay passing on the increased costs to consumers.
Despite the slowing reported inflation rate, many seniors are still feeling the impact of rising prices. While they received a pay bump from Social Security in January, many also had to pay more for health insurance and medical care. Medicare Part B premiums increased 9.7% in January, reaching $202.90 for most people. Meanwhile, healthcare prices continue to climb faster than the average inflation rate.
While many Social Security beneficiaries may be holding out hope for a bigger COLA in 2027, it’s a double-edged sword. It means seniors have to contend with higher pricing now in the hopes that the CPI numbers give them a nice pay bump next year.
