Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is a true natural wonder: a unique and diverse underwater seascape the size of a small country.
However, cycles of disturbance and recovery threaten to turn its colorful coral gardens into algal-dominated seascapes — then back again. And these cycles are becoming more volatile as our world warms.
At the Australian Institute of Marine Science, we’ve been documenting these changes for the past four decades through our Long-Term Monitoring Program. This is one of the longest records of continuous coral reef data in the world.
Concerningly, we’ve watched the health of the Great Barrier Reef begin to fluctuate dramatically over the past 15 years. The 2024 mass coral bleaching — where a record-breaking marine heatwave bleached coral reefs from the Caribbean to the Indian and Pacific Oceans — was particularly destructive. It caused the largest single-year decline in coral ever measured in two regions.
However, our latest report reveals some promising signs of recovery.
Scientists have been monitoring the health of the Great Barrier Reef for four decades. AIMS LTM/CC BY-NC-ND
In hot water
In 2025, the Great Barrier Reef endured its sixth coral bleaching since 2016 — one of only two back-to-back bleachings in the reef’s history.
However, our latest survey data shows the 2025 bleaching was smaller and less severe than in 2024. This means substantially less coral died, showing not all periods of bleaching have the same outcome.
A heatwave’s intensity and duration determines whether corals die or survive. If corals get relief from the heat, they can regain their symbiotic algae and survive.
On the Great Barrier Reef, sea surface temperatures generally peak between January and March. During these summer months, marine heatwaves can increase the risk of coral bleaching. Marine heatwaves occur if ocean temperatures remain unusually warm for the location and time of year for at least five consecutive days.
In spring 2025, a marine heatwave swept across the reef, raising ocean temperatures by up to 1.5°C. According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate trends, December 2025 was the reef’s hottest December on record since 1900. If the heatwave continued through summer, the unrelenting heat would have likely led to widespread coral bleaching.
Low-level coral bleaching in the southern Great Barrier Reef. AIMS LTMP/CC BY-NC-ND
Signs of recovery
Last year, we recorded the largest single-year decline in living coral cover in four decades of monitoring. This followed the devastating 2024 mass coral bleaching. Coral cover refers to how much of the reef surface is covered in live hard coral, compared with algae, sand, and other organisms. It’s one indicator of how healthy a reef is.
In good news, our latest report suggests coral cover increased slightly in some parts of the reef from 2025 to 2026.
In the northern region (Cape York to Cooktown), coral cover rose from 30% to 35.1%. This figure increased from 28.6% to 31.6% in the central region (Cooktown to Proserpine). This puts both regions above the long-term average of coral cover.
However, coral cover in the reef’s southern region (Proserpine to Gladstone) remained below the long-term average, decreasing slightly from 26.9% to 26.4%.
Trends in average coral cover (blue line) for the northern, central, and southern Great Barrier Reef based on manta tow surveys. AIMS LTMP/CC BY-NC-ND
So, what is driving this?
In early 2026, we noticed signs of regional coral bleaching in the northern and central Great Barrier Reef. But a monsoon soon arrived, bringing widespread cloud and rainy weather, helping to cool the reef at just the right time.
Australian monsoon activity typically coincides with the northern wet season, from October to April. During an active monsoon, clouds, rain, and winds help cool the surface of the ocean. Breaking waves and turbulence then mix hotter surface waters with deeper, cooler waters. The monsoon season also reverses winds over the tropics, so northern Australian winds blow as moist northwesterly winds.
The monsoon returned in early March 2026, bringing clouds and rain to cool the reef. Courtesy of NASA Worldview – Aqua/MODIS (True Color)
Still challenges ahead
Our ability to assess threats to the Great Barrier Reef has vastly improved in the past decade. Global forecast systems can now predict ocean temperatures weeks to months in advance, providing early warnings of marine heatwaves and coral bleaching risks around Australia.
But the reef faces many urgent and increasing pressures.
Recent bleaching means corals are particularly vulnerable to record-breaking global ocean temperatures and a predicted strong El Niño.
Crown-of-thorns starfish are one well documented threat to the reef’s corals. Since the 1960s, there have been four waves of crown-of-thorns outbreaks, with a fifth wave currently emerging in the far north. And these coral-eating starfish will move further south in the coming years.
The reef was also hit by two tropical cyclones — Koji and Narelle — between January and March 2026. Cyclones have some cooling effect, but may whip up enormous waves that destroy coral in their path.
The Great Barrier Reef has again shown its remarkable ability to recover. But we can’t take this for granted.
Instead, we must urgently act to reduce our carbon emissions and minimize climate change. Developing science interventions offers a pathway to build the reef’s resilience and help it survive a warming future. And we must protect our marine parks to ensure the reef not only survives, but thrives.
The predatory crown-of-thorns starfish feeds on coral. AIMS/LTMP, CC BY-NC-ND
This article was written by Jessica Benthuysen, Daniela Ceccarelli, and Mike Emslie from the Australian Institute of Marine Science and was originally published on The Conversation.
Featured Image: AIMS LTMP/ CC BY-NC-ND
