A senior advocacy group this week predicted a lower cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security in 2027 than previously forecast, which could impact spending by those receiving the benefit.
Social Security checks in 2027 could see a COLA increase of 3.6%, The Senior Citizens League said on Aug. 12, which would boost payments by $69.75. This forecast is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast in June by The Senior Citizens League, but still higher than what recipients received in previous years.
“If TSCL’s projection holds, the 2027 COLA will be the highest in four years. The COLA was 2.8 percent in 2026, 2.5 percent in 2025, and 3.2 percent in 2024. It was 8.7 percent in 2023, as post-COVID inflation reached its peak,” The Senior Citizens League said.
COLA is a yearly benefit change to Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments to keep up with inflation, so recipients are given a proportionate check to sustain their buying power of everyday items like gas, food, clothing and more.
“Seniors don’t experience inflation as a percentage on a chart. They experience it at the grocery store, at the pharmacy, in their insurance premiums and when they pay the rent. That’s why the size of the COLA matters, but so does how accurately it reflects their real-world expenses,” Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton said.
The biggest challenge to predicting the COLA forecast has been “inflation’s volatility,” experienced in 2026, and that instability has already caused seniors to lose purchasing power.
“It started the year at 2.2%, then surged to 4.4% by May before falling back to 3.5% in June. That kind of instability can throw off forecasts, but our model is designed to avoid chasing every spike and dip, which has kept our predictions on a relatively steady course,” Benton said.
The official COLA will be announced on Wednesday, Oct. 14, and will go into effect in January 2027.
Social Security is paid through the Social Security Administration to benefit retired workers, those with disabilities or for survivors. The Supplemental Security Income program is also a part of the SSA to provide benefits for those with limited or no income or resources, those aged 65 or older and those with a qualifying disability.
Here’s more on the 2027 Cost-of-living Adjustment:
What is the 2027 Cost-of-living Adjustment for Social Security looking like now?
The 2027 COLA forecast has dropped to 3.6% since the previous forecast according to The Senior Citizens League’s July 14 update. If that goes into effect, the average Social Security check for retired workers would increase by $69.75, Â from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28.
In July, The Senior Citizens League announced the COLA forecast at 3.8%.
The TSCL releases a COLA prediction each month based on the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rate and the National Unemployment rate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
When will the official 2027 Cost-of-living Adjustment be announced?
The official COLA increase for Social Security payments in 2027 will be announced on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026.
How is the Cost-of-living Adjustment calculated?
The COLA is calculated with a formula, per the Social Security Act. The adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) calculated monthly by the U.S. Bureau Labor of Statistics — CPI-W is the average change over time in the prices paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, per the U.S. BLS.
What was the Cost-of-living Adjustment for 2026?
At the beginning of 2026 recipients received a 2.8% COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments, according to the SSA’s COLA Fact Sheet and American Association of Retired Persons, increasing payments about $56 per month.
When will I get my Social Security checks in August?
— USA TODAY contributed.
Contact Sarah Moore @ smoore@lsj.com
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Social Security forecast falls slightly. Why checks could increase less
