We’re one month into the most important quarter of the year for Social Security recipients.
Next year’s Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA, is determined by the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, in the third quarter of the year – July, August and September. That means while forecasts for Social Security increases are issued monthly, the numbers from these three months are the ones that really matter.
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The latest projections from the non-partisan The Senior Citizens League predict a 2027 COLA of 3.8%. That would be the largest jump since 2022, when beneficiaries saw a massive post-COVID increase of 8.7%. Since then, COLA has been 3.2%, 2.5% and 2.8% for 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.
If the COLA were implemented today, average benefits would rise by $73.62, from $ 1,937.53 to $2,011.15.
CPI-W is the monthly measure of the change in time in prices paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, including everything from apples, shirts, airline fares and the cost of eating at home. As of June, the CPI-W reflected a 3.5% increase over the past 12 months.
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Next year’s Social Security increase will be announced after the Labor Department releases its September inflation data. That’s set to happen on Oct. 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET. After that, the Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 increase payable on the first check in the new year (or the Dec. 31 payment for SSI recipients).
