If you’re one of the more than five million Floridians who receive Social Security benefits every month, you have good news and bad news.
The good news is that the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is expected to increase benefits by 3.7% in 2027, based on the June consumer inflation report. It’s down a percentage point from last month’s estimate, mostly due to lower gas prices, but if that’s what is officially announced in October, it would still be the largest increase since 2022.
The bad news? Overall annual consumer prices rose 3.5% in June, and any other gains will quickly be swallowed by expected increases in Medicare and drug costs, analysts said.
This would affect more than 75 million Americans who receive Social Security and/or Supplemental Security Income benefits as of June, 2026.
How much would a 3.7% COLA mean for Social Security recipients?
A Social Security COLA of 3.7% would increase an average benefit of $2,000 by $74 per month, according to Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare analyst who tracks and calculates the COLA estimate.
Note that this is only an estimated percentage based on current data. Changes in inflation in the next few months could still change it.
The 2.8% COLA increase for 2026 raised the average retired worker’s check by about $56 per month, according to the Social Security Administration.
Is a 3.7% COLA a large increase?
A 3.7% increase would be the largest since 2022, when COLA was 8.7%, SSA data shows. That was when inflation during the COVID pandemic reached the highest level in 40 years.
The COLA has averaged about a 3.1% increase over the last decade.
What is a Social Security COLA?
Every year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) determines and announces a cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for the following year based on the annual Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which tracks spending habits.
For people living on a fixed income, knowing what your monthly income will be ahead of time is of vital importance. That COLA is intended to help recipients keep up with inflation, like a yearly “raise.”
However, prices for shelter and medical care services are not factored into the SSA’s COLA calculations, and those prices — which disproportionately affect the people likely to receive Social Security —have been rising fast.
Would a 3.7% COLA boost cover Medicare premium increases in 2027?
According to a recent estimate in the 2026 Medicare Trustees report, the base Medicare Part B premium, or amount paid by individuals with incomes below $109,000 and joint filers with incomes below $218,000, is expected to increase about $6.60, or 3.3%, to $209.50 in 2027 from $202.90 the prior year.
“This would be a lower-than-average Part B increase, which have averaged 5.4% per year over the past decade,” Johnson said. “While moderation in the Part B increase is likely to be welcomed, many Medicare beneficiaries may find other Medicare costs much higher, including the Part D deductible, which is increasing to as much as $700 in 2027.
When will I know how much my 2026 Social Security benefits will be?
Recipients should begin receiving notifications by mail starting in early December detailing their new benefit amount.
If you have a personal my Social Security account, you can view the notice online when it’s ready.
How many people in Florida receive Social Security?
As of December 2025, 5,294,001 Floridians received Social Security benefits, according to Congressional statistics. Of those:
Retired workers: 4,191,491
Disabled workers: 462,756
Widow(er)s and parents: 260,003
C. A. Bridges is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Why a 3.7% Social Security COLA may not keep up with inflation
