The Senior Citizens League now projects a 3.8% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027, up from this year’s 2.8%, reflecting higher inflation.
The advocacy group says even a larger COLA would still leave many retirees struggling, with average Social Security benefits well below estimated monthly living costs.
A new TSCL survey finds 44% of older Americans now rely entirely on Social Security for retirement income, the highest share reported by the organization.
A stronger-than-expected increase in Social Security benefits may be on the horizon next year, but a seniors advocacy group warns it still won’t be enough to keep pace with the rising cost of living.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) said its latest estimate puts the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) at 3.8%, one full percentage point above the 2.8% COLA beneficiaries received this year. The projection follows the latest inflation data, which showed continued price pressures as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the inflation gauge used to calculate Social Security’s annual adjustment.
The COLA, which will be announced in October, is based on the CPI-W data for July, August, and September.
If the forecast proves accurate, the average monthly retirement benefit would rise by about $77, increasing from approximately $2,026 to $2,103 beginning in January 2027.
But TSCL argues that the increase would still fall well short of what many retirees need to cover basic expenses.
Essential costs keep rising
According to the organization, the estimated monthly cost of living for a single older adult is roughly $2,700, including average housing costs and other essential expenses such as food, transportation, and healthcare. That leaves the average Social Security benefit hundreds of dollars below what many seniors need to meet everyday expenses.
The group’s newly released 2026 Senior Survey paints a picture of growing financial dependence on the program. It estimates that 24.8 million older Americans—about 44% of retirees—now rely on Social Security as their only source of retirement income, up from 39% a year earlier.
The survey also found that 57% of seniors live on less than $2,000 per month, while 13% survive on less than $1,000 monthly, levels TSCL says leave millions vulnerable to poverty and financial hardship.
‘Delaying medical care’
“We’re seeing inflation on the rise when more than half of seniors already can’t afford basic living standards,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a statement, adding that many older Americans are forced to delay medical care because of costs.
Benton said a larger COLA may sound encouraging compared with this year’s adjustment but argued it does not erase the gap between retirees’ incomes and their actual living expenses. She called on Congress and the White House to consider increasing Social Security benefits beyond annual inflation adjustments.
While TSCL updates its projection monthly, economists caution that the estimate could still change depending on inflation trends over the coming months. A cooling in prices could lower the final adjustment, while persistent inflation could push it higher before the official announcement in October.
