Ask any Social Security beneficiary whether they want a large or small cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027, and nearly all of them will say they want the biggest benefit boost possible. After all, who would turn down more money?
But a big Social Security COLA might not help you as much as you’d hoped. In some cases, it could actually make your finances more complicated. Here are three reasons why.
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1. It means high inflation
The Social Security Administration bases COLAs on third-quarter inflation changes, so it’s tied to how fast the cost of goods and services is rising. High COLAs occur amid high inflation, like we’re seeing now.
So while it might increase your monthly benefit, it won’t improve your standard of living. That extra cash will go toward your rising living costs.
2. It could increase your risk of benefit taxes
Your Social Security COLA will likely also boost your provisional income. This is a measure the government uses to determine how much of your benefits to tax. It’s your adjusted gross income (AGI), plus any nontaxable interest from municipal bonds, and half of your annual Social Security benefit.
If your provisional income exceeds $25,000 for a single adult or $32,000 for a married couple, you’ll have to give a portion of your benefits back to Uncle Sam. These limits aren’t indexed for inflation, so your Social Security COLA and increased spending due to rising costs could be all it takes to make up to 85% of your benefits taxable next year.
This doesn’t mean you’ll wind up with a tax bill. You may just get a smaller refund in the future. But it’s important to prepare for this if you think you may owe taxes on your benefits in 2027 or later.
3. It could push Social Security toward insolvency more quickly
Larger COLAs increase Social Security’s expenses, which is problematic because Social Security has been spending more money than it’s taken in since 2021. Its trust funds are keeping the program afloat for now, but they’re expected to be depleted by 2032, according to a recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. When that happens, seniors could face benefit cuts of up to 28% unless the government intervenes.
A substantial COLA could cause the program’s trust funds to run out sooner than expected, potentially accelerating benefit cuts. However, this isn’t a guarantee. The government may decide to make other changes to Social Security to avoid cuts.
We can’t control where the 2027 COLA ends up, but it’s important to understand the trade-offs of a large benefit boost so you aren’t caught off guard by rising expenses or higher taxes. When the Social Security Administration announces the official COLA in October, it’ll be time to start planning your budget for next year.
