Despite the latest inflation reading showing prices heating up due to the Iran war, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for 2027 is projected to be the same as this year’s.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates that seniors will see a 2.8% bump to their benefits, the same as the 2026 COLA. The average benefits check for retired workers would increase by $56.69, from $2,024.77 to $2,081.46.
This is not good news.
Read more: How to find out your 2026 Social Security COLA increase
“With everyday costs continuing to climb, the gap between a projected COLA and real-world expenses is hard to ignore,” TSCL executive director Shannon Benton told Yahoo Finance. “Beef prices remain elevated, energy costs are rising, and a quick trip to the grocery store makes it clear that a 2.8% increase is not enough to keep up with inflation for cash-strapped Social Security recipients.”
Still, it is important to remember that this figure is an early projection, and the final COLA will depend on inflation trends in the months ahead, Benton added.
TSCL issues a new COLA prediction each month based on the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the unemployment rate.
The actual COLA, which the Social Security Administration is expected to announce in mid-October, is calculated by averaging together the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter of the year — July, August, and September — and then comparing that figure with the same data from last year.
“Older consumers, especially those with lower retirement incomes, remain vulnerable to some of the higher prices that haven’t gone down,” Mary Johnson, a Social Security expert analyst, told Yahoo Finance.
Johnson, however, predicts a higher COLA of 3.2%, mainly based on the jump in gasoline prices.
To put the size of this change in context, two months ago, Johnson estimated that the COLA for 2027 would be just 1.2%, based on January 2026 data.
“This is the tip of the inflation iceberg,” she said. “As geopolitical tensions with Iran continue, there will likely be continued upward price increases for many goods and services, including groceries and shelter, as rising gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions get passed along to consumers.”
Kerry Hannon is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. She is a career and retirement strategist and the author of 14 books, including “Retirement Bites: A Gen X Guide to Securing Your Financial Future,” “In Control at 50+: How to Succeed in the New World of Work,” and “Never Too Old to Get Rich.” Follow her on Bluesky and X.
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