Independent analyst Mary Johnson projected in June that Social Security benefits would increase by 4.7% in 2027. The Senior Citizens Group (TSCL), a nonprofit organization that advocates for seniors, forecast a 3.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
Both Johnson and TSCL now have lower projections of 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively. However, I predict that their 2027 COLA estimates are about to rise again. And there’s one clear reason why.
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The oil price whipsaw
Oil prices skyrocketed earlier this year after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. The resulting disruption to traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices high. When oil prices rise, so do the costs of many other goods. And when these prices increase, so does inflation.
The Social Security COLA is calculated using a specific inflation metric — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). As oil prices rose during the first four months of 2026, so did the CPI-W. As the CPI-W increased, analysts revised their 2027 COLA projections upward.
However, oil prices plunged in May and June. Why? Mainly because of the brief ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Hopes soared that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened for business. The June inflation report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was better than many experts expected. This led Johnson and TSCL to lower their COLA forecasts.
Their next monthly estimates of next year’s Social Security benefit increase will be released shortly after the BLS releases its August inflation report on Sept. 11, 2026. It doesn’t take psychic abilities to predict that inflation will be higher than in July and that Johnson and TSCL will boost their 2027 COLA projections. Oil prices swung higher again in recent weeks.
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To be sure, oil prices aren’t as high as they were at the peak in early May. However, they’re well above the recent trough in early July. Also, the impact of higher fuel prices doesn’t immediately affect other products’ prices. Expect inflation to bounce back in the next BLS report, along with COLA estimates.
What the revised estimates could look like
Energy prices can easily account for 7% to 8% of the overall CPI-W basket. Higher oil prices, therefore, directly affect the CPI-W level.
But, as we’ve already discussed, that’s only part of the story. Many products must be transported on trucks and vans that run on diesel fuel or gasoline. Higher oil prices lead to higher transportation costs that are often passed along to consumers.
Because of the increased oil prices in recent weeks, it wouldn’t be surprising if the 2027 Social Security COLA estimates announced next month are again in the ballpark of 3.8%. If the actual adjustment next year is that amount, it will translate to roughly $79.50 more money per month (around $954 per year) for the average retiree, based on the June average monthly Social Security retirement benefit of $2,092.
Two caveats and one cautionary note
My prediction comes with two important caveats.
First, oil prices are highly volatile. If events in the Middle East lead to a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, 2027 Social Security COLA forecasts could reflect optimism, even if inflation numbers rebound in the BLS August report.
Second, Social Security COLA estimates must be taken with a grain of salt. The actual 2027 benefit increase amount won’t be known until mid-October, after the BLS releases its September inflation report.
I will also add a cautionary note: Whatever the ultimately is, retirees shouldn’t count on having all of the extra money to spend. For example, healthcare costs in retirement usually rise faster than overall inflation. Your Medicare Part B premium increase could significantly reduce the amount of additional money you pocket from next year’s Social Security COLA.
