(NEXSTAR) — A new projection estimates Social Security recipients may still be in line for a modest Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) later this year, though the increase may still change.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) released its latest COLA projection on Tuesday, keeping its prediction at 3.8%. That’s the same rate TSCL estimated in May and down slightly from the 3.9% it forecasted in April. It remains a notable improvement from the 2.8% increase the TSCL projected in March.
On average, monthly benefits would increase by just under $74 to about $2,011, TSCL said Tuesday.
The true COLA increase for 2027 is not expected to be released until October.
TSCL bases its projections on the same metrics used by the Social Security Administration to calculate the annual COLA for retired beneficiaries. But the group has long argued that this data (i.e., the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners, which itself is a measure of the change in prices for common consumer goods and services) does not take into account the costs that elderly Americans are paying for things like medicine, housing and groceries.
In November 2026, when the current year’s COLA was announced, TSCL pointed to a survey of seniors that found only 10% to be satisfied with their monthly benefits, “with many citing COLAs that lag inflation as a problem.”
TSCL has long pushed for Congress to overhaul the method for calculating COLAs, calling instead for a system based on the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) — which is “specifically based on the spending patterns of Americans 62 years of age and older,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics says.
Congress has reintroduced the Social Security 2100 Act, which would use the CPI-E to calculate COLA changes, but TSCL says the bill’s future is grim.
“The bill is the gold standard for Social Security reform and accomplishes the majority of changes older Americans want to see for the program,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a press release, noting that while the bill is unlikely to pass, “it should.”
In addition to the benefits the Social Security 2100 Act could have on COLA adjustments, TSCL argues it could extend the program’s lifespan for another three decades.
“Right now, we have a golden opportunity to act,” Benton said. “Congress will almost certainly have to pass a bill to address the program’s finances in the next few years, which provides a perfect chance to simultaneously shore up benefits for the next 100 years and continue the program’s legacy.”
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