Recent warnings about potential food security challenges in the coming months highlight the importance of strengthening the resilience of India’s agricultural systems to El Niño.
These concerns, coupled with disruptions to fertiliser supplies and global grain shipments arising from geopolitical conflicts, create pressures on energy, food, fertiliser and financial systems, underscoring the importance of enhancing the resilience of India’s economy and food systems to external shocks.
For India, this is particularly significant. Agriculture and allied activities account for 46.1 per cent of the country’s workforce, making the sector central to livelihoods and economic well-being. At the same time, factors such as fragmented landholdings, gaps in irrigation coverage, limited access to quality and timely inputs, limited technological penetration, limited handholding support to farmers at field level continue to shape agricultural productivity.
The Government has set a foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes for 2026–27, around 2.63 million tonnes below the estimated 376.56 million tonnes produced in 2025–26, with El Niño-related being the major reason around it.
Stocks above buffer norms
Meanwhile, in the first half of 2026, India held around 513 lakh tonnes of wheat and 397 lakh tonnes of rice, substantially above the prescribed buffer norms.
In this context, a combination of short-term preparedness and long-term investments in agricultural resilience can help India navigate the potential impacts of El Niño. Some key areas for consideration include:
- Strengthening water resilience: According to the Economic Survey 2025–26, the share of gross irrigated area in India’s gross cropped area increased from 41.7 per cent in 2001–02 to 55.8 per cent in 2022–23. However, irrigation coverage varies considerably across states and crops. These differences highlight opportunities to strengthen water security, particularly in rain-dependent agricultural regions, while promoting crop choices suited to local agro-climatic conditions.
- Crop diversification & intensification should be a ‘Must’: El Niño conditions offer an opportunity to rethink cropping patterns, particularly in vulnerable regions, by promoting less water-intensive crops such as millets, and suitable fodder crops. Diversification should consider both climate resilience and income potential, as vegetable cultivation can offer higher cash returns for small and marginal farmers.
- Technological Intervention to boost yield and productivity: Climate-resilient technologies and farming practices, such as protected cultivation, direct-seeded rice, solar-powered micro-lift irrigation, trellis farming and grafted vegetable seedlings in wilt-prone areas, should be promoted at scale to improve productivity and reduce climate-related risks. Tree-based farming systems should also be scaled up to strengthen farm resilience and help mitigate the impacts of climate change.
- Building collective resilience: Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) can help small and marginal farmers strengthen their resilience by facilitating access to climate-resilient seeds, farm machinery, water-management solutions, collective storage and processing, and better markets. Strengthening women-led collectives can further promote inclusive climate adaptation and rural economic resilience.
- Prioritising early action: The FAO and WFP’s 2026 El Niño appeal highlights anticipatory measures such as resilient seeds, water harvesting, livestock protection and early-warning systems to protect nearly nine million people across 22 countries.
Preparing for potential risks
In India, linking weather forecasts to timely crop advisories, seed distribution, establishment of seed banks, livestock support and access to credit and insurance at the district and block levels could help farmers prepare for potential climate risks.
- Building a risk-management framework for agriculture: Strengthening agriculture’s capacity is essential for protecting farmers’ livelihoods especially small and marginal farmers. This calls for better integration of climate information, agricultural finance and market infrastructure. Addressing climate volatility as a shared responsibility across institutions, markets and farming communities can help safeguard India’s food security and livelihoods.
The coming months offer an opportunity to strengthen agricultural systems to better withstand future El Niño events, supply-chain disruptions and climate shocks, while building long-term resilience into India’s food system.
The author is Integrator, PRADAN
Published on October 31, 2026
