Social Security recipients are just weeks away from finding out how much their benefits could increase in 2027, with the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) expected to be announced in October.
Social Security is one of the most important social programs in the U.S. The increase is designed to help millions of Americans keep up with inflation, with the new rate set to determine how much beneficiaries receive in their monthly checks next year.
Social security benefits are adjusted for inflation each year. The benefit goes up most years however there have been occasions — 2009, 2010, and 2015 — when inflation was low enough that the COLA was 0%, so benefits didn’t increase as a result.
Around 75 million people receive Social Security benefits, making any changes to payments significant for millions of Americans covering essential living costs.
COLA is announced annually every October after the Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers 9CPI-W) for July, August and September is confirmed.
The announcement is expected in October (Getty Stock Image)
CPI-W is an inflation metric that closely tracks changes in prices of goods, such as food, transportation, energy costs and housing.
The 2027 COLA is therefore expected to be announced by the Social Security Administration on Oct. 14, at 8:30am ET.
If there is an increase, it will be payable in January 2027’s check.
The CPI-W metric works by comparing the average from eh third quarter of the current year, to the third quarter average in the previous year. The COLA is set as the percentage increase.
The CPI-W average in 2025 was 2.76% higher than the figure in 2024, for example, which resulted in the 2.8% COLA for 2026.
According to recent data, it is expected that COLA will be 3.6%. This would be 0.8 percentage points higher than 2.8% in 2026, according to The Senior Citizens League predictions.
If this predicted figure is close to being correct, it would be the third-highest COLA in the past decade.
An increased amount to help with essential living costs is expected to be announced (Getty Stock Image)
The reason for this is said to be due to rising energy costs and conflict in the Middle East. According to Yahoo Finance, energy prices were up 14.7% year over year in July, encompassing a 39.1% leap in fuel prices.
If the predictions are accurate, average benefits would grow by $69.75.
However, if the current year’s CPI-W average is the same, or less, than the previous year’s, there won’t be an adjustment for 2027.
We won’t know exactly what the 2027 figure will be until the announcement in October.
But all initial signs suggest an above-average increase for 2027.
In July, the CPI-W grew by 3.4% and this growth is expected to continue in August and September.
Social Security COLA
2025 – 2.8%
2024 – 2.5%
2023 – 3.2%
2022 – 8.7%
2021 – 5.9%
2020 – 1.3%
2019 – 1.6%
2018 – 2.8%
2017 – 2.0%
2016 – 0.3%
2015 – 0%
2014 – 1.7%
2013 – 1.5%
2012 – 1.7%
2011 – 3.6%
2010 – 0%
2009 – 0%
2008 – 5.8%
2007 – 2.3%
2006 – 3.3%
2005 – 4.1%
2004 – 2.7%
2003 – 2.1%
2002 – 1.4%
2001 – 2.6%
2000 – 3.5%
