Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026 | 2 a.m.
Barring action from Congress, millions of Americans who depend on Social Security could see their benefits cut by as much as 24% in 2032. The deep cuts would average about $500 a month, but, according to a recent analysis, the impacts would vary by state.
A Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis showed how the reductions would hit benefits on retirees and their communities. The cuts vary based on the average Social Security benefits paid in each state, which are determined by work history, earnings and age at retirement, among other factors. Workers in states with higher prevailing wages typically receive more benefits and therefore face larger cuts.
One-in-five Americans — 63 million in total — would be impacted if Social Security’s retirement program faced a 24% cut today, the study found.
In general, average monthly benefits would top $500 in 29 states, with largest cuts impacting retirees in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Utah and Washington. More than 15% of the population would be directly impacted in 47 states, with the largest shares of the population impacted in Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Vermont, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Total benefit cuts would top 1% of Gross Domestic Product in 40 states with the largest economic impact in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, South Carolina, Vermont and West Virginia.
The latest projections from the Social Security Board of Trustees show that the reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund are set to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032. After that point, Social Security would only be able to pay 76% of promised benefits.
The bulk of the money for Social Security is funded through dedicated payroll taxes and taxes on benefits. Any shortfall is covered by its existing trust funds.
For the past 16 years, Social Security payments have exceeded its cash income, forcing it to dip into fund reserves to pay benefits. By law, it can’t pay out more in benefits than it receives in revenue, so once the trust fund is gone, cuts will follow.
State-by-state breakdown of Social Security cuts
Here are the by-state cuts if Congress doesn’t step in to address the shortfall:
- United States – $500
- Alabama – $486
- Alaska – $483
- Arizona – $511
- Arkansas – $469
- California – $490
- Colorado – $515
- Connecticut – $556
- Delaware – $549
- DC – $506
- Florida – $496
- Georgia – $487
- Hawaii – $501
- Idaho – $494
- Illinois – $507
- Indiana – $515
- Iowa – $504
- Kansas – $520
- Kentucky – $472
- Louisiana – $460
- Maine – $478
- Maryland – $541
- Massachusetts – $527
- Michigan – $523
- Minnesota – $530
- Mississippi – $459
- Missouri – $490
- Montana – $478
- Nebraska – $509
- Nevada – $482
- New Hampshire – $553
- New Jersey – $554
- New Mexico – $472
- New York – $511
- North Carolina – $501
- North Dakota – $488
- Ohio – $487
- Oklahoma – $486
- Oregon – $504
- Pennsylvania – $519
- Rhode Island – $519
- South Carolina – $505
- South Dakota – $486
- Tennessee – $495
- Texas – $489
- Utah – $523
- Vermont – $516
- Virginia – $522
- Washington – $531
- West Virginia – $480
- Wisconsin – $513
- Wyoming – $512
