Key Points
Social Security’s 2027 COLA recently got a downgrade.
The estimates are still higher than this year’s COLA.
A smaller raise means less rampant inflation this summer, so it’s not a total loss.
There are many retirees who get most of their income from Social Security. Some retired folks even get 100% of their paycheck from those monthly benefits. For people in this boat, cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcements are important.
In 2026, Social Security benefits got a 2.8% COLA. And many seniors are hoping for a more generous raise in the new year.
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The bad news is that 2027’s COLA projection just got downgraded. The good news is that it could actually spell relief for retirees in the near term.
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Social Security’s 2027 COLA forecast has been lowered
Social Security COLAs are based on readings from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Following June’s reading, which came out in July, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, stated that its 2027 COLA projection would stand firm at 3.8% — the same as the previous month.
But independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson downgraded her COLA forecast substantially. Earlier in the year, Johnson had pegged 2027’s COLA at 4.7%. Following June’s CPI-W reading, she changed that number to 3.7%, which is a significant reduction.
Seniors won’t necessarily lose out with a smaller raise
Even though 2027’s COLA is shaping up to be more generous than 2026’s, the bad news in all of this is that retirees may not see a raise in the 4% range like Johnson initially suggested. The good news is that if next year’s COLA ends up in the 3% range, it will be a sign of cooling inflation.
Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter readings from the CPI-W specifically. So if Johnson’s lower number ends up being the accurate one, it will mean that inflation cooled over the summer, bringing much-needed relief to retirees on a fixed income.
On the flipside, if next year’s COLA ends up coming in higher than Johnson’s current projection, or higher than what the Senior Citizens League currently estimates, it will come at the cost of rising prices throughout the months of July, August, and September. And that could strain seniors’ budgets tremendously.
It’s important to have the right expectations
The Social Security Administration should be announcing an official 2027 COLA in mid-October. At that point, retirees can expect news of other changes to Social Security, like a new limit for the earnings test and a new maximum monthly benefit.
But all told, Social Security COLAs tend to be a mixed bag for seniors no matter what they amount to. Larger raises mean higher prices, and smaller raises mean more moderate inflation.
It’s important to recognize that COLAs aren’t meant to improve retirees’ finances. The best they can do is help Social Security recipients keep up with price changes around them.
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