- AARP estimates a 3.6% Social Security COLA for 2027, though the official figure has not yet been determined.
- The final adjustment will be based on July, August and September 2026 CPI-W inflation data and is expected to be announced on October 14, 2026.
- If the estimate holds, millions of retirees, SSDI recipients, and SSI beneficiaries could receive higher monthly benefits starting in January 2027.
Millions of Social Security beneficiaries could receive a larger cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027 if inflation remains elevated, according to a new forecast from AARP.
Based on June inflation data and projections from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, AARP estimates a 3.6% COLA for 2027. If the forecast proves accurate, retirees, disability beneficiaries and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients would see higher monthly payments beginning in January 2027.
The estimate is preliminary, however. The Social Security Administration (SSA) will calculate the official COLA using inflation data from July through September, meaning the forecast could change before the final announcement in October.
What Is the Latest 2027 Social Security COLA Estimate?
AARP’s 3.6% projection, released July 14, is the organization’s first early estimate for the 2027 adjustment. It is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)—the inflation measure used by the SSA—along with the Cleveland Fed’s inflation outlook.
The forecast is slightly more conservative than some independent estimates, with a few analysts projecting the 2027 COLA could approach 4% if inflation remains elevated through the third quarter.
Why Is the 2027 COLA Expected to Increase?
The projected increase reflects persistent inflation. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI-W rose 3.5% in June compared with a year earlier. Rising energy costs, higher import prices linked to tariffs and continued increases in everyday expenses have kept inflation above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target.
Because the annual COLA is determined by the average CPI-W during July, August and September, each monthly inflation report released before October could push the estimate higher or lower.
How Much Could Your Monthly Benefit Increase?
If the 3.6% estimate becomes official, average monthly benefits would increase by approximately:
Retired worker: about $75 more per month (from roughly $2,084).
Surviving spouse: about $70 more per month (from roughly $1,931).
Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) recipient: about $59 more per month (from roughly $1,635).
Individual increases will vary based on each recipient’s current benefit amount.
How Is Social Security COLA Calculated?
Each year, the SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September with the same three-month period from the previous year.
If inflation has increased, beneficiaries receive a COLA beginning with payments issued in January. Because the adjustment is tied directly to inflation, there is no guaranteed annual increase.
When Will the Official 2027 COLA Be Announced?
The SSA is expected to announce the official 2027 COLA in October 2026, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s CPI data. The increase will take effect with benefits paid in January 2027.
Until then, economists expect forecasts to fluctuate as additional inflation data become available.
What Are Experts Saying?
Rich Johnson, vice president of financial security at the AARP Public Policy Institute, reportedly said providing an early estimate allows retirees to begin planning before the official announcement.
“Family budgets have been under increasing pressure because of rising prices. The sooner that we can give them reliable information as to how much their benefits might increase next year, the sooner they can start planning.”
Indivar Dutta-Gupta, a distinguished visiting fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, said inflation continues to hit older Americans particularly hard because essentials such as housing, groceries, healthcare and energy account for a significant share of their household spending.
While AARP’s 3.6% projection suggests another meaningful increase for Social Security recipients, the final adjustment remains uncertain. With three key inflation reports still to come before the official calculation, the 2027 COLA could ultimately be higher or lower than current forecasts. For now, beneficiaries can use the estimate as an early planning tool rather than a guaranteed increase.
