If Social Security is your main source of retirement income, you’re probably already struggling. Even with your budget pared down to the essentials, you may still find yourself scrambling to come up with cash when an unplanned expense arises.
Losing any of your Social Security benefits is probably unthinkable, yet it’s something all workers and seniors have been forced to think about in light of recent news. The latest Social Security Trustees’ Report revealed the program is just six years from a possible 22% benefit cut, and the consequences could be devastating.
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What a 22% benefit cut would do to the average Social Security benefit
The average Social Security retirement benefit as of May 2026 is $2,083 per month. If this shrank by 22% today, it would leave the typical retiree with just $1,625 per month. The average spousal benefit would drop from $986 to $769.
In reality, a 22% cut in six years would be even more extreme, because cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) will raise benefits between now and 2032, when the trust funds are expected to be depleted. So a 22% cut then would take more dollars than a 22% cut today.
But in either situation, it would be devastating to families who depend on those benefits to maintain their financial independence. Fortunately, it likely won’t play out exactly like this.
Why a 22% benefit cut is unlikely
The risk of a 22% benefit cut isn’t zero, but it’s not as high as you might expect. That would only happen if the government turned a blind eye to Social Security’s predicament. But history says it won’t do that. When Social Security last faced insolvency in the 1980s, Congress overhauled the program to avoid major benefit cuts. It’ll likely do the same thing this time. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that those fixes will cost money, and we don’t yet know who will pay for them. Workers could face a higher Social Security payroll tax rate, reducing their take-home pay and making it more difficult to save for retirement. Or seniors might have to give Uncle Sam more of their benefits at tax time.
Several members of Congress have proposed fixes over the years, but none have gained momentum yet. We may still have to wait a few more years to learn how Social Security will change. Once we do, we’ll all have to revisit our retirement plans and adapt accordingly.
