A sophisticated AI-powered examination of coral reef resistance extrapolated into the future found that there’re about 64,000 square miles of coral reefs on Earth that could still be resisting climate change by 2050.
The common theory states that CO2 emissions create a greenhouse effect which warms the seas which causes coral reefs to bleach or even die, yet there are environments—as GNN has frequently reported—where corals seem to be more resilient.
The authors of this new study found that when they used 45,000 observations of coral reefs going back as far as 1960 as the data set for an AI model to examine, it predicted according to 46 different criteria that 25 years from now there’d still be swaths of coal reefs totaling the size of Wisconsin located primarily in 8 countries, and that these would be capable of surviving and thriving in the warming seas.
The findings were presented at Our Ocean Conference in Mombasa, Kenya, and are available on the preprint server EcoEvoRxiv.
Most of the coral distribution was plotted out in the Philippines, Indonesia, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Australia. Belize, Nicaragua, and the Turks and Caicos Islands also showed coral resilience in 2050 according to the estimates.
The criteria for where in the world the AI would map as good coral habitat comes from a concept of ‘coral refuges’ which are observations that coral species can either endure warming seas, recover from damage faster, or avoid damage altogether in certain places.
Where these are in the world comes from the 45,000 observations mentioned earlier.
Why coral seem to enjoy these conditions in these particular places isn’t exactly clear—particularly as regards Nicaragua’s neighbor Honduras, where the country’s largest coral reef is also the victim of substantial ecosystem disturbance by human activity, yet seems to be flourish year round.
Sara Hashemi, a daily correspondent at Smithsonian Magazine, wrote that the authors of the new study want their work “to offer a road map for where countries should invest conservation funding, especially for small nations with limited resources.”
Hashemi started her report by noting that “it’s hard to feel optimistic for coral reefs” these days. It’s hard—if one doesn’t read GNN.
There’s great news on coral all around the world. In terms of protections, 77,000 square miles of tropical seas will be off limits to fishing thanks to bold conservation action by Papua New Guinea this year.
Located in the legendary Coral Triangle, where the Pacific and Indian Oceans meet, the newly-designated Western Manus Marine Protected Area will form part of the newly established Melanesian Ocean Corridor of Reserves, a network of national and jointly managed protected areas spanning Fiji, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea.
The science of coral breeding and restoration is advancing in leaps and bounds. This January, GNN reported that scientists on the island nation of Mauritius are naturally breeding heat-resistant corals that faced a bleaching event last summer with 98% survival rates.
Marine biologists weren’t even able to breed coral in a lab 20 years ago, but recently, scientists on the Maldives bred 10,000 corals in just weeks using a portable station shipped in a container to the archipelago.
In 2022, the breeding of coral took a cosmic leap with the first ever out-of-season spawning event for lab-bred corals along Australia’s northeastern coast.
Even just learning about these incredible organisms and what they’re capable of is an ongoing and encouraging process. GNN reported in 2024 that a Nat Geo expedition found the world’s largest coral ever, a leviathan shadow on the seabed that stretched out longer than a blue whale—longer than 4 tennis courts.
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