Even after depletion of Social Security’s retirement trust fund, the system will continue issuing benefits, albeit at reduced amounts.
WASHINGTON — A new report from Social Security’s board of trustees warns that the program’s funding is on track to run dry within a decade unless Congress acts.
As of April 2026, roughly 70 million Americans receive Social Security benefits, though that number is higher when accounting for Supplemental Security Income, or both.
A new analysis that was released in early June forecast a grim outlook for the program if its retirement fund is exhausted in 2032.
For the past 16 years, the cost of benefits has exceeded its cash income, prompting the program to dip into its trust fund reserves. Without any changes from Congress, that trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2032.
The looming challenge for the programs is a partial funding gap, not a collapse. Even after trust fund depletion, the system will continue issuing benefits, albeit at reduced amounts.
The average monthly retirement benefit for 2026 was projected to be $2,071 following the announcement of the 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment for the year, the Social Security Administration said in October.
Social Security recipients could see their monthly income checks cut by $500 by 2032 if the program’s trust fund becomes insolvent.
Insolvency doesn’t mean payments would stop altogether, but it would mean a significant cut in the amount each recipient gets. The report finds benefits would be automatically cut by 24% once the trust fund becomes depleted.
The cuts would be widespread across 29 states, with the largest cuts impacting retirees in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Utah and Washington.
The official report, released June 9, by the agency’s board of trustees revealed that the situation may be even more dire, in that the concerns flagged in the 2025 report remain unchanged.
The trustees identified three key factors that are contributing to the revenue outlook:
- Declining fertility rates
- Lower immigration
- Changing to tax and spending legislation
The trustees, who include the treasury secretary, labor secretary, health and human services secretary and the Social Security commissioner, say the latest findings show the urgency of needed changes to the programs, which have faced dire financial projections for decades.
Congressional action is required to address the shortfall.
Possible solutions include increasing payroll taxes, raising the retirement age for benefits, and expanding the amount of income subject to payroll taxes, among others.
In 1983, the program was just months away from insolvency and needed urgent changes to ensure benefits would be paid. The 1983 reforms resulted in a higher retirement age among other changes in eligibility.
Without the trust fund, Social Security will only be able to cover about 80% of benefits from the income taken from payroll taxes.
TEGNA Digital and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
