Labor Landscape
The combination of airport near misses in recent weeks and a shortage of aviation mechanics has passengers jittery about flying.
A study by platform Pollfish among 1,000 U.S. adults over 18 reported 66 percent are concerned about the shortage of aviation mechanics and more than 56 percent contribute the shortages to delays and cancellations. And 73 percent of the respondents name safety risks as their single major concern, while 2 percent said nothing about a mechanic shortage would concern them.
And nearly nine in 10 (89 percent) of the respondents say mechanic shortages threaten reliable air travel, including 39 percent who call it a major threat and 50 percent who call it a moderate threat. More than two-thirds (69 percent ) of respondents say aircraft mechanics are as critical to safety as pilots.
“I am not running to the airport any time soon,’’ said Bob Pfaller, a retired designer. “It’s just not safe to fly now, ‘’ he added. And Robert Strauss, a professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, said he is nervous about flying with all the ongoing terrorism threats and aviation mechanic shortages.
Competition is keen for aviation mechanics. The hiring pressure reflects a widening shortage that is already reshaping air travel. The industry is about 17,00 technicians short in North America, according to new data released by consulting firm Oliver Wyman. The projections said another 45,000 technicians are expected to retire over the next decade. The shortfall is projected to peak in 2028, when the deficit could reach as many as 30,000 mechanics.
At Cincinnati State Technical and Community College in Ohio, enrollment is surging as airlines and cargo carriers race to hire trained mechanics. “Employers are lining up,’’ said instructor Jeff Wright, who graduated from the program in 1981, and has worked in the field ever since.
Wright, program chair and professor of Aviation Maintenance Technology at Cincinnati State Technical and Community College, said the program has 200 students in the two- year program. “We anticipate the program growing to more than 250 to 260 students,’’ Wright added. Program graduates can expect to earn $30 to $40 an hour after completing the rigorous program.
Industry analysts report that the gap did not happen suddenly. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, airlines cut hiring for years, creating what experts call “a lost generation of mechanics.’’ Then came the COVID-19 pandemic when thousands left the industry. At the same time, fewer military technicians – once a major source of civilian aircraft mechanics – are entering the workforce.
“We are seeing a diverse group of students from high school graduates to individuals seeking a second career,’’ said Wright.
Strauss noted that driven by aging baby boomers and early retirements, this aviation mechanic shortage threatens to increase flight delays and maintenance costs, requiring airlines to boost wages and enhance recruitment.
“I have not flown for years because of my fears for safety issues and the increased cost of booking a flight,’’ said Cissy Cameron, a small business owner in Washington, Pa.
Still Wright and other aviation experts say it is safe to fly. In the United States, around 2.34 million passengers fly daily, with U.S. airlines handling roughly 853 million passengers annually. While air travel is quite common today, only about 20 percent of the world’s population has flown, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
And aircraft manufacturer Boeing reports that 660,000 new pilots, 710,000 new maintenance technicians and 1,000,000 new cabin crew members will be needed to fly and maintain the global aviation fleet over the next 20 years.
