Millions of Social Security recipients could see a larger cost-of-living increase next year, according to one analyst.
WASHINGTON — The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 could climb higher, according to one monthly estimate.
The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, could be 3.2% in 2027, according to Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.
Multiple media outlets report Johnson’s updated estimate was based on March’s consumer price index data released Friday, which shows gas prices caused a sharp spike in inflation last month.
“This represents the biggest single-month jump we’ve seen in inflation since 2022,” Johnson said, according to Barron’s. She previously forecast a 1.7% increase in March.
But not everyone is projecting a higher cost-of-living increase next year.
The Senior Citizens League, a non-partisan advocacy group for seniors, is keeping its latest monthly estimate for COLA in 2027 to be 2.8%. That would be the same as the 2026 COLA.
The 2027 COLA is expected to be announced in mid-October, so there’s still plenty of time for the estimates to change.
How much more would Social Security recipients get in 2027?
The exact amount depends on your monthly Social Security retirement benefit. TSCL said that if its 2.8% estimate holds, then the average benefits check for retired workers would increase by $56.69, from $2,024.77 to $2,081.46.
How much has social security increased in recent years?
Recipients received a 2.8% increase in 2026, a 2.5% increase in their benefits in 2025 and a 3.2% increase in 2024, after a historically large 8.7% benefit increase in 2023, brought on by record 40-year-high inflation.
In the previous 20 years, the COLA has averaged 2.6%. Over the past decade, it’s averaged about 3.1%, the Social Security Administration said.
Almost 75 million people — including retirees, disabled people and children — receive Social Security benefits, according to the latest data.
Melissa Hernandez De La Cruz contributed to this report.
