Congress might have less time to act than we thought.
Social Security is the backbone of millions of Americans’ retirement plans. But unless Congress acts to reform the government program, many retirees will see a significant cut in benefits within the next seven years.
Social Security actuaries estimated the program will deplete the Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund by the first quarter of 2033, according to last year’s Trustees Report. That’s just seven years away. At that point, Social Security will only be able to pay out in benefits as much as it brings in in tax revenue. The actuaries estimated that this would amount to just 77% of the benefits due in last year’s report.
But several developments have made the problem worse over the past year, and that could speed up the timeline and increase the cuts Social Security beneficiaries face if Congress fails to act and ensure the health of the program. The actuaries highlighted several in a presentation in December. These three stand out as having the biggest and most noticeable impacts.
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1. The new tax code
Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, which made several tax reforms. Among them was a temporary special tax deduction for taxpayers age 65 and older. Those eligible will be able to take the additional tax deduction of up to $6,000 per person for years 2025 through 2028.
The tax break was marketed as a way to reduce or eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors. That said, anyone who meets the age and income requirements can take the deduction, regardless of whether they currently collect Social Security.
The new deduction will have a noticeable impact on the amount of tax revenue collected by Social Security. That means less money coming into the program with the same amount going out, which will accelerate the timeline to trust fund depletion.
Chief Actuary Karen Glenn provided an update last fall, sharing the new estimated depletion date. The actuaries now expect the fund to run out of money in the fourth quarter of 2032 instead of the first quarter of 2033.
2. Executive action against immigration
Since the trustees published their report last year, President Trump has taken a hard stance against immigration. Executive actions have limited entry into the country, both legally and illegally, while also increasing the number of foreign detainees. Immigration in 2025 fell to 1.3 million people, down from 2.8 million in 2024.
That’s bad news for Social Security. Immigration, both legal and illegal, is a net positive for the program because the biggest culprit of the current deficit in Social Security is a growing population of retirees, relative to the working-age population. Allowing immigrants to come into the country and join the workforce means more revenue for Social Security.
Even unauthorized immigrants (those who enter illegally or overstay their visas) contribute to Social Security. A study of 2010 census data found unauthorized immigrants contributed a net $12 billion in cash to the program.
As such, if the current actions to reduce immigration stay in place long term, it will speed up the timeline toward the Social Security trust fund’s depletion and increase the size of the benefit cuts once it runs out of money.
3. Historically low birth rates
As mentioned, the ratio of retirees to working-age population is growing, putting a significant strain on the finances of Social Security. That stems from the baby boomer generation reaching retirement age, massively increasing the retired population.
However, the problem could get worse in the future. Young women aren’t having as many children as in the past. If that trend continues, the ratio of retirees to working-age population will get even worse in about 20 years.
The most recent data from the National Survey of Family Growth, which came out following the release of last year’s Trustees Report, shows a stark drop in expected births for women aged 15 through 24. Expected births for women aged 25 through 34 also saw a notable drop.
The actuaries note that the drop could come from more effective family planning and women choosing to delay having children until later in life. However, other evidence points to a societal change where women no longer feel the need or desire to have children.
With declining birth rates, the working-age population is set to grow at a slow pace. That means the amount of Social Security tax revenue relative to the benefits due will also decline as Gen X and millennials reach retirement age. As a result, Social Security may face even more severe cuts than outlined in the 2025 Trustees report.
No easy fixes
There are no easy fixes for Social Security. The challenges stem from competing political interests across the spectrum. The only certainty is that the remedies for Social Security will require significant changes to multiple parts of the program and sacrifices from all participants to ensure its longevity.
The sooner Congress acts, the better. The timeline seems to be speeding up.
