Social Security beneficiaries will likely receive a smaller 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) than previous estimates suggested. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, recently updated its COLA forecast with new July data, lowering its estimate from 3.8% to 3.6%.
The COLA isn’t locked in yet, though. We have to wait and see what inflation does over the next month and a half before we know what next year’s benefit boost will look like, and a larger one may not actually give you the relief you’re hoping for.
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What a smaller 2027 COLA could mean for your Social Security benefit
A 3.6% Social Security COLA would add roughly $75 to the $2,086 average monthly benefit as of July 2026, down slightly from the $79 increase a 3.8% COLA would have brought. Realistically, receiving $4 less per month won’t make or break anyone’s budget, but it could still be disappointing.
You may have hoped for a larger 2027 COLA, especially if you’re struggling to cover your expenses with the benefits you’re currently receiving. But a larger COLA comes with a hidden drawback: high inflation.
The Social Security Administration bases the annual benefit increase on changes in average third-quarter inflation from one year to the next. COLAs are larger in years with higher inflation, but that also means expenses rise more quickly. The extra money you receive goes toward covering the increased cost of goods rather than improving your lifestyle.
If the 2027 COLA remains at the estimated 3.6% rate or declines, that would signal that inflation is slowing. But we won’t know the actual boost your checks will get until the Social Security Administration announces it on Oct. 14, 2026.
What to do when the 2027 Social Security COLA is announced
Once we know the actual 2027 COLA, you can estimate how much it will add to your checks by multiplying the percentage by your existing benefit. Keep in mind that if you’re on Medicare, you’ll have your Part B premiums withheld from your Social Security checks, and these may also increase next year.
In early December, the Social Security Administration will send all beneficiaries personalized COLA notices that list their exact benefit amount for next year. Use your future benefit and your average monthly expenses over the last several months to estimate how much you’ll need to cover on your own next year. Taking the last few weeks of 2026 to build your 2027 budget can help you start January off strong.
