In 2027, retirees could find themselves with far more money in their Social Security checks than they are receiving this year. And there’s a simple reason why that’s the case. It’s because of the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) that retirees are on track to collect.
COLAs are awarded in most years to help ensure Social Security benefits do not lose buying power. But the amounts can vary widely, and next year’s COLA could be a large one.
So just how much more will you get in your check next year if the COLA estimates pan out? Here’s what you need to know.
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How big will the 2027 COLA be?
The official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will be announced in October, but experts have already estimated how big the 2027 raise is going to be.
These estimates are based on inflation data, as the Social Security Administration calculates the COLA based on changes in prices over time. Specifically, third-quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) will determine the benefit increase.
Based on the data so far this year, which doesn’t directly factor into the formula but which does show trends in inflation, the Senior Citizens League has estimated the COLA will be 3.8% in 2027. This would be substantially larger than the 2.8% COLA provided to retirees in 2026, and it would be the largest increase since 2023, when inflation was surging in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic.
This is how much your Social Security check could increase next year
So how much would your Social Security check increase next year? That depends on the benefits you are already collecting, as the COLA is applied on a percentage basis. While the specific formula Social Security uses can be a little complicated, you can get a very accurate estimate by simply multiplying the current income you are collecting by the anticipated raise.
This means that if you are currently receiving around $2,000 and you get a 3.8% raise, you’d see your payments increase by around $76, while if you’re collecting $1,500, your benefits would go up around $57. Now, you may not collect this full extra amount because if Medicare premiums increase and you’re covered by Medicare, the extra premiums come out of the COLA.
Still, you could see your payments increase by a fairly large amount, so you should consider this during your upcoming retirement planning for 2027.
